SWITZERLAND MAY FACE FIRST RECESSION IN SIX YEARS. THANKS, FRANC!

The data is due on Friday, and many analysts now expect gross domestic product to have shrunk 0.1 percent in last quarter, a second consecutive contraction that would mark the first recession in six years.

Seven months after the central bank removed its currency cap, Switzerland is dealing with declining exports, stagnant manufacturing and plunging prices.

The local currency has appreciated 11 percent against the euro since the central bank’s unexpected January 15 decision to opt for a free float.

The central bank also cut its deposit rate to a record low of minus 0.75 percent and pledged currency interventions as needed. Its next rate decision is on Sept. 17, and Jordan said that a policy change isn’t imminent.

For SNB President Thomas Jordan, who has defended the decision, the weaker near-term backdrop will match his assessment when policy-makers gather in three weeks for their quarterly policy meeting.

In an interview with UnternehmerZeitung last week, Jordan said that the current monetary policy is taking today's difficult situation into account. “We expect the economy to return to a growth path in the second half of the year.”

A number of economists, however, consider that the fall may be short-lived, predicting growth of 0.1 percent this quarter and 0.2 percent in the last three months of the year.

Although growth is expected to resume, surveys indicate a subdued recovery. A manufacturing index has signaled contracted almost every month this year and consumer confidence dipped to its lowest in more than three years in July.

The slowdown in China could hamper economic momentum, as global demand will become unpredictable, analysts say.

In July exports of watches to eight leading Asian markets dipped, with China tumbling almost 40 percent. Overall exports to China dropped 1.7 percent last month. Shipments to the euro area in the first half, which account for 44 percent of sales abroad, fell 8 percent.

Swiss companies have been looking to Asia to offset weakness in Europe, with Switzerland clinching a free-trade agreement with the world’s second-largest economy last year, Bloomberg reports.

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YOUNG AND RICH: TOP 10 BILLIONAIRES UNDER 35

The world has one percent of the people which really made a lot of money in young age. Agency Wealth-X compiled a top list of billionaires under 35, where is dominated by male "technopreneurs" and features more than one college dropout.

For example, on the top spot - Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, whose $41.6 billion net worth far outstrips the rest on the list. For two others in the top five the social networking site helped create massive fortunes too - for Dustin Moskovitz and Eduardo Saverin. Their sites are worth $9.3 billion and $5.3 billion respectively, these guys was co-founders Facebook with Zuckerberg before pursuing other tech ventures.

The smash success of Airbnb puts three names on the list. Co-founders Nathan Blecharczyk, Brian Chesky, and Joe Gebbia each boast personal fortunes of about $3 billion thanks to the short-term apartment rentals site. Women also have two places among the top 10, led by Chinese real estate heiress Yang Huiyan at no. 3 with a net worth of $5.9 billion. America's youngest self-made female billionaire, 31-year old Elizabeth Holmes, generated her $4.5 billion fortune through biotech Theranos. And she didn't even need a college degree. Holmes left Stanford University at 19 with a plan to start her own company. Theranos founded in 2003.

Snapchat co-creator Evan Spiegel at just 25 years of age was the youngest person in the top 20 on 15th spot with a $1.9 billion. His popular messaging app has been preparing for an IPO after it rejected a $3 billion acquisition offer from Facebook in 2013.

Here's the top 10:
1. Mark Zuckerberg, $41.6 billion, Facebook

2. Dustin Moskovitz, $9.3 billion, Asana

3. Yang Huiyan, $5.9 billion, Country Garden Holdings

4. Eduardo Saverin, $5.3 billion, 99

5. Scott Duncan, $5 billion, Enterprise Product Partners

6. Elizabeth Holmes, $4.5 billion, Theranos

7. Nathan Blecharczyk, $3 billion, Airbnb

8. Brian Chesky, $3 billion, Airbnb

9. Joe Gebbia, $3 billion, Airbnb

10. Thomas Persson, $2.7 billion, Hennes & Mauritz

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11 CURRENCIES THAT MAY FALL AFTER THE YUAN AND TENGE

On Thursday Kazakhstan has shocked global markets - its national currency was plunge on 23 percent. Kazakhstan abandoned control of tenge rate. Vietnam also devalued the dong, while freely traded currencies (the South African rand and Turkey’s lira) extended losses.

The trigger for the wave of depreciations was China’s decision to weaken the yuan on Aug. 11. That added to the woes of emerging markets already reeling from a looming increase in U.S. interest rates and weakness in oil prices.

There are some currencies that are among those most at risk from this conflux of global developments:

- Saudi Arabia’s riyal. Saudi Arabia has about $672 billion in foreign reserves, but speculators are betting on a break of the currency regime as crude oil tumbled to a seven-year low.

- Turkmenistan’s manat. This nation with close economic ties to Russia devalued its currency by 19 percent in January. Analysts from SEB AB wait for further weakening a 20 percent in the next six months.

- Tajikistan’s somoni. The country has close ties with Kazakhstan and so SEB expects a depreciation of 10 to 20 percent.

- Armenia’s dram. The currency has lost 15 percent in the past year, compared with a 46 percent drop in the ruble. A quarter of the country’s trade is with Russia.

- Kyrgyzstan’s som. The weaker tenge will put pressure the som because of this country’s ties to Kazakhstan.

- Egypt’s pound. Traders are betting the pound will weaken about 22 percent in a year.

- Turkey’s lira. It’s one of the world’s worst-performing currencies since China’s devaluation on Aug. 11. An escalation in political violence and the probability of early elections compound the issues.

- Nigeria’s naira. The currency will fall more than 20 percent against the dollar over the next year, traders think.

- Ghana’s cedi. Ghana is also an oil exporter, but its main problems are mainly fiscal imbalances, rising inflation and increasing debt.

- Zambia’s kwacha. The country is heavily exposed to China as copper accounts for about 70 percent of exports.

- Malaysia’s ringgit. The currency slid to a 17-year low on Thursday and foreign-exchange reserves fell below the $100 billion mark for the first time since 2010.

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5 REASONS TO BELIEVE GOLD PRICES COULD RECOVER TO $1,200 AT YEAR-END - HSBC

The bank made a forecast for the price of gold at year-end and estimated that it will be increase as much as 10 percent higher than current levels. The bank set out five reasons in a report on Friday for the experts to believe gold prices could recover to $1,200 per ounce at the year-end.

1. Fed tightening is already priced into gold
"With a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy having been anticipated in the financial markets since as early as 2013, some of the declines based on a rate rise have already occurred." Thus, the reaction of the gold may not be negative one in any case.

2. Actual Fed hikes could see gold prices rise
"This pattern has important ramifications for gold. History shows that gold prices…generally rise, though sometimes with a lag, after the first rate hike."
3. There's scope for a short-covering rally
Short positions on the Comex touched the peak on July 7 while long positions are at their highest since December 2009.

4. Low prices will, ultimately, spur demand
"In important gold consuming nations, such as China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, as well as other EMs, consumers may have fewer tools at their disposal with which to protect savings and household wealth against rising prices or low or negative real interest rates."

5. Central bank buying will remain supportive
"The PBoC is an important central bank with significant influence. The mere fact that they have accumulated gold may lead other EM central banks to examine purchasing bullion. Also many central banks hold quite low levels of gold reserves in relation to their forex holdings, leaving room for further accumulation."

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HOW TO TRADE NEWS EVENTS: ECONOMIC RELEASES THAT MOVE US DOLLAR

How the market reacts to economic releases is generally determined by two factors:
How important the market considers a particular release to be.
How close to market estimates the number comes in at.
How important the market considers a particular economic release to be, is something that changes over time depending on what is happening from a US Dollar fundamentals standpoint. If there are worries that the economy is going into recession, then the market is going to be extra sensitive to any numbers, such as non farm payrolls and consumer spending, which may provide early warning signs that this is the case.

The most market moving indicators, in order of importance are:

Non Farm Payrolls
FOMC Releases
Retail Sales
ISM Manufacturing
Inflation
Producer Price Index
The Trade Balance
Existing Home Sales
Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries (TIC Data)

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GERMAN REGULATORS WORRIED ABOUT FOREX MANIPULATION

German banking regulators worried about attempts of foreign-exchange manipulation at large domestic banks and expects investigation by next year.
Raimund Roeseler, the head of bank regulation at BaFin: "We haven't concluded our investigation so I can't predict."

Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG fired individual traders attempted to manipulate rates. The banks are cooperating with authorities.

By the way, Deutsche Bank is still waiting BaFin's final verdict over Libor but Mr. Roeseler declined to comment on whether his authority will push for further consequences. Mr. Roeseler rejected the idea of any witch hunt telling that his authority "doesn't accuse Deutsche Bank of witchcraft."

BaFin has the "impression that banks started probes with the goal to prove their innocence" and too late focused on conducting an unbiased investigation into their role in market manipulation. "They didn't do themselves a favor with that," Mr. Roeseler told.

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GOLD - WE ARE LOOKING FOR $980 PER OUNCE

Gold dropped below key support level at $1150 and for now we are looking at the next support target near $980. Historical support level for gold is $1180 which was broken as well and the price to continue falling towards the next support level at $980.

It was in March 2015 when gold fell below $1180 and traders waited for a further fall but price rebounded. And for now, the gold has fallen below $1180 and the next target for now is $980.

By the way, the gold price moved sideways for two years starting in June 2015. And between June 2013 June and January 2015 the sideways movement was below the long-term trend line with the primary bearish condition.

The bearish features on the gold chart showed that there is a good probability for the gold to break $1150 support and a continuation of the downtrend towards  $980.

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