WILL CHINA LEAD THE WORLD TO ANOTHER RECESSION? CITIGROUP RESPONDS

If the global economy slips into a moderately deep recession next year, it will most likely be dragged down by shrinking growth in major emerging markets - especially a recession in China, says Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup.

Buiter, who is also a former member of the Bank of England's interest rate-setting committee, said in a note that the bank believes there is a high and rising likelihood of a Chinese, emerging market and global recession scenario playing out.

Worries over a steep slowdown in China's economy - the second largest in the world after the U.S. - has rolled over global markets in recent months.

Deepening those concerns, data issued on Tuesday signaled the country's dollar-denominated exports dropped by 5.5 percent in August from a year earlier, while imports plunged almost 14 percent.

Although, a global recession is not yet reflected in Citi's benchmark forecasts for global or Chinese growth in 2016, Citi's global economics team has supported this view.

In his opinion, what is more likely is global real gross domestic product growth (GDP) dipping consistently over the next few years, dropping to or below 2 percent around the middle of 2016.

He also noted, however, that the possibility of some kind of recession, moderate or severe, was 55 percent.

If the world economy slips into a recession, generally identified by two straight quarters where GDP falls, it will be the emerging markets. Particularly, China will lead the road, Buiter said.

"We consider China to be at a high and rapidly rising risk of a cyclical hard landing," the Citi note said.

"The reasons behind China's downturn and likely recession are familiar from the long history of business cycles everywhere: rising excess capacity in a growing number of sectors, excessive leverage in the private sector and episodes of irrational exuberance in asset markets."

One of the asset markets Citi referred to was the equity market. Having soared some 60 percent between the start of the year and June, China's benchmark Shanghai Composite gauge then dropped sharp and fast.

Earlier this week, China revised down its forecast for economic growth this year to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent.

Buiter said that if China enters a recession, many emerging markets will probably follow.

"The advanced economies or developed markets (DMs) will not have enough resilience, either spontaneous or policy-driven, to prevent a global slowdown and recession, even though many large DMs will not experience recessions themselves but will merely grow more slowly," he added.

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GOLD INDUSTRY: "PEOPLE ARE STILL EAGER TO INVEST IN JEWELRY"

CEO at XCel Brands Robert D’Loren is sharing his view on the state of mind of average consumers and their investment desires. His opinion is a quite interesting insight into the industry and how businesses adjust their strategies to the current market situation.

It is too early to say whether the current market volatility significantly impacts the consumer confidence, D'Loren says. The trend nowadays is that consumers are no more physically presented in the stores, and the businessman explains that in the recent years consumers have become more confident with the distance shopping - through interactive television or online sale. This trend fits into business strategies of many companies.

D'Loren suggests that people are still willing to invest in jewelry, as weaker prices for the metal weigh. However, businesses should adjust them keeping in mind the current market environment...

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MUST-READS 2015: TECHNOLOGY DOMINATES THIS YEAR’S FT BUSINESS BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD

Technology and risks it may bear take over this year's Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award. No wonder, in the age of progressing technology and multiplying startups, readers crave for new biographies and fresh explanations...

Only once, in 2013, a technology book won the prize. That was Brad Stone's "The Everything Store" about Amazon.

This year, the award's 15-title long list includes such best-sellers, as Ashlee Vance's "Elon Musk", Nathaniel Popper's "Digital Gold" about bitcoins, Martin Ford's "Rise of the Robots" and a number of others. Let us have a closer look.

Ashlee Vance's "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the quest for a Fantastic Future"

The book treats about one of the most prosperous and talented entrepreneurs of our time, a man behind PayPal, Tesla and SpaceX, - Elon Musk. Veteran technology journalist Ashley Vance gives an insight into his life, from his difficult childhood in South Africa to remarkable ascent in the United States as a man of the epoch who managed to revolutionize three industries at once. In the times of chasing easy money, Musk took a risk of chasing secrets of radical new technology. Along with grinding failures and a rising number of enemies, he experienced unprecedented successes which brought him to creating Tesla, SolarCity, SpaceX, and Musk's net worth soared to more than $5 billion...

Nathaniel Popper's "Digital Gold: The Untold Story of Bitcoin"

In his fresh 2015 best seller, New York Times technology reported Nathaniel Popper paints a brilliant history of Bitcoin - a digital currency of the Age of Internet, free from central banks and governments. This technology generated not only billions of dollars, but also attracted crowds of followers and spawned a wide social movement. To some, it brought untold fortunes, while for others - prison terms.

Martin Ford's "Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future"

Martin Ford's new book is an exploration of the new technology and an urge to arms to face its implications. The book soars on the verges of technology and economy, warning that unless we reassess economic fundamentals and the essence of the modern economy, we risk a future of massive unemployment and inequality.

Ford's warning sounds clearly: robots are coming, and we must decide – now – if the future will see prosperity or catastrophe. Indeed, artificial intelligence continues to accelerate and is on its way to making some today's jobs obsolete, like doctors, paralegals and even programmers are poised to be replaced by machines.

What else is on the desk?

Economic works try to keep abreast with the tech ones.

In "Restart", Mihir Sharma describes how to revive India, while in "Hall of Mirrors", Barry Eichengreen compares the lessons from the Great Depression with the recent credit crisis. In "Climate Shock", authors Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman observe another global crisis - climate change.

Richard Thaler explains how the behavioral economics developed evolved in "Misbehaving".

George Akerlof and Robert Shiller in their best seller "Phishing for Phools" are interested in economic trickery and the way free markets allow us to be manipulated. The book is coming next month.

In "Black Horse Ride", Ivan Fallon investigates how Lloyds, the UK bank, became embroiled in the banking crisis.

Finally, for anyone looking for hints on what's ahead for us, be it in the stock market or policy making, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner lay out how to improve our ability to predict the future in their forthcoming book, "Superforecasting".

The judges will select a shortlist of up to six books on September 22. The £30,000 prize will be awarded on November 17. Here is what the long list consists of:

Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, Princeton University Press

Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics (UK) Richard Thaler Allen Lane/ Penguin Press

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future (US), Ashlee Vance, Ecco

Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet, Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman Princeton University Press

How Music Got Free: What Happens When an Entire Generation Commits the Same Crime? (UK), Stephen Witt The Bodley Head/ Penguin Random House

Unfinished Business: Women Men Work Family, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Oneworld Publications/ Random House

Restart: The Last Chance for the Indian Economy, Mihir Sharma, Vintage Books/ Random House India

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (US), Martin Ford, Basic Books

Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses - and Misuses - of History, Barry Eichengreen, Oxford University Press

The Powerhouse: Inside the Invention of a Battery to Save the World, Steve LeVine, Viking

Losing the Signal: The Untold Story Behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of Blackberry, Jacquie McNish and Sean Silcoff, Flatiron/ Macmillan

Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money (US), Nathaniel Popper, Harper/ HarperCollins

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (UK), Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Random House Books

Leadership BS: Fixing Workplaces and Careers One Truth at a Time, Jeffrey Pfeffer, HarperBusiness/ HarperCollins

Black Horse Ride: The Inside Story of Lloyds and the Banking Crisis, Ivan Fallon, The Robson Press/ Biteback Publishing

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